Satellite Petrochemical (002648) In-Depth Research Report: Polycarbonate integration has set C2 layout to win at cost

Satellite Petrochemical (002648) In-Depth Research Report: Polycarbonate integration has set C2 layout to win at cost

For more than 20 years, Fengfeng Muyu has been an integrated development of the industrial chain.

The company started from commerce and business, and gradually stepped forward. It completed a leap from the Jiaxing base to the Pinghu base. At present, it has formed a C3 integrated layout with a 北京夜生活 90-inch PDH device as the core, followed by the construction of a $ 33.5 billion Lianyungang base.

From the perspective of profit, the company’s core profit comes from the insertion of three-phase conductors made of dehydrogenation, which is essentially a relatively cheap energy arbitrage behavior.

In terms of product structure, the company currently focuses on starch, acrylic acid and esters and is the industry leader in this product. The revenue of these two businesses accounted for 83% in 2018, and the gross profit accounted for 81%. It is a fist product.

  HGL is still old and loose in 2020, and the cost advantage of PDH is solid.

The company’s excess income earned by the industry mainly comes from cheap crystals and crystals on the cost side, so the propylene and propylene obtained by it have a cost advantage of 1,000 yuan / ton relative to external purchase costs.

Therefore, regardless of the prosperity of the downstream industry, as long as the raw material side continues to be loose, the company’s profits are guaranteed.

As it happens, from the supply and demand data of 2020, the short-term supply growth rate in the United States has remained above 15
% compared to 2018, and the net export volume will increase to 370,000 barrels per day in 2020, a 42% increase compared to 2018.The background is bound to continue to be surplus.

Initially, US data shows that the background of high inventory and large output also exists.

According to EIA’s forecast, in 2020, US grain production will further increase to 1.71 million barrels per day, apparent consumption will remain at 920,000 barrels per day, and net exports are expected to increase by 12%.

5%, the overall supply and demand is expected to be loose, and prices will remain low.

  The profitability of the C3 industry chain is stable, and the SAP market has great potential.

The company’s existing business is divided into three main lines of acrylic acid and ester, polymer emulsion and SAP, core extender and starch prepared by dehydrogenation, and its own gross profit is stable.

On the line of acrylic acid and esters, the neutral level of acrylic acid prices fluctuated and tended to be weak, and the gross profit margin was slightly shifted. The conversion project of 36 acrylic acid esters and 36 acrylic acid esters at Dushan Port Base in Pinghu was completed, and the rest increased.

Both the volume and price of polymer emulsions are stable, and the gross profit margin is also stable, which belongs to the cash cow business.

  In terms of production capacity of super absorbent material SAP, the 6-calorie production line has entered the final debugging stage in H2 in 2019, and the company’s SAP production capacity has increased by 67%.

In terms of gross profit margin, benefiting from the increase in the penetration rate of scattered products caused by aging, it has the characteristics of both volume and price.

  Lianyungang can contribute an annual net profit of 3 billion after it is fully put into operation, and the first-phase project accounts for about 50%.

Following the 135 forecast PE, 219 introduction of EOE and 26 index ACN joint plant project capacity planning, assuming medium ethylene consumption ratio / (cyclic carboxylic acid + formaldehyde) = 1: 1, it can be estimated that the project put into production can contribute 3 billion annuallyNet profit after tax (approximately estimated at 15%), that is, one period can contribute 1.5 billion net profit.

  Investment Advice.

We expect the company’s net profit attributable to mother to be 2019-2021 in turn.

500 million.

15
300 million and 31.

4 megabytes, corresponding to EPS in order of 1.

17.1.

44 and 2.

95 yuan / share.

According to the evaluation in the past 2 years, the center was given 15 times PE and 21 times.

The target price of 6 yuan / share is covered for the first time and is given a “strong push” rating.

  Risk Warning: Trade conflicts affect cross-border supply.

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