Sanquan Food (002216): Logic Confirmation of Net Profit Surpassing Expected Fundamentals
The higher-than-expected net profit was due to accelerated revenue growth, lower expense ratios and reduced asset impairment losses.
The company’s announcement predicts that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother will be 1 in 19 years.
14 ‰, an increase 重庆耍耍网of 80-110% in ten years; 19Q4 return to net profit of mother 0.
97 ppm, a year-on-year increase of 439-686%, exceeding market expectations.
We believe that the high net profit growth in 19Q4 was mainly due to the accelerated growth of the company’s revenue, lower expense ratios and reduced impairment of fixed assets.
1) We expect the company’s 19Q4 revenue to accelerate its growth. The advance payment plan for the first three quarters will be confirmed in the fourth quarter. The company will expand its distribution channels and coexist with price increases. It is expected that the retail business will accelerate in 19Q4 and the catering business will continue to grow at a high rate of about 40%.
2) The company’s traditional retail market achieved significant improvements in operating efficiency by optimizing its product structure, actively expanding sales channels, and increasing the efficiency of its internal organization. The company’s expense ratio during the first three quarters decreased by zero.
87pct, 19Q4 expense rate is expected to continue the downward trend.
3) In the fourth quarter of last year, due to the upgrading of the dumpling machine, the asset impairment loss was zero.
370,000 yuan, the influencing factor was eliminated in 19Q4.
Supermarkets reduce losses, catering efforts, net profit margin is expected to continue to increase in the next 3 years.
(1) The company’s direct business supermarket channels are in a state of replacement, and after the company gradually expands the business supermarket expenses, we expect that in the 21st year, the direct sales supermarkets are expected to narrow to 100-200 million; the company’s distribution channel net interest rate will increase, and revenue is expected to be maintainedSteady growth. We expect the net profit of the distribution channel to reach 4 trillion points in 21 years.
(2) Net profit of catering channel in the first half of 19 was 6.
5%, higher than the retail channel, high growth in catering channel revenue is expected to increase net margin.
(3) The company deepened its internal structure adjustment, optimized performance assessment, reduced unnecessary expenses, and promoted team vitality.
Regardless of the sale of Sun’s earnings for the time being, it is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 19-21 will be 1.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 92 in ten years.
21% / 50北京夜网 .
04% / 36.
62%, EPS is 0.
50 yuan / share, corresponding to PE is 52/35/26 times.
Sanquan Food’s fundamental improvement logic is fulfilled, and future performance is expected to continue to improve, giving 45 times PE over 20 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 16.
5 yuan / share, maintain BUY rating.
The cost of raw materials increased faster than expected; expenses exceeded expectations; food safety risks.