Global temporary interest rate cuts China temporarily not following

Global temporary interest rate cuts China temporarily “not following”
Sauna Night Net Mapping / Chen Dong March 1-year LPR is still 4.05%, still more than 5 years.75%; experts expect the next wave of interest rate cuts and quasi-accuracy to be “on the road” Under the global environment of expanding interest rate cuts, China’s LPR (loan market quoted interest rate) has the latest quotation.According to the interbank lending center announced on March 20, the 1-year LPR is 4.05%, LPR is over 5 years.75%, which remained unchanged from the last quotation.  The current outbreak of new coronary pneumonia is raging overseas. Since the epidemic has hit the economy, since early March, more than 20 countries such as the United States, Canada, New Zealand, Australia, the United Kingdom, Egypt, and Egypt have announced interest rate cuts.Domestic LPR quotations remain unchanged, making others feel slightly more than expected.Experts believe that the situation of long-term resumption of production and production has obviously improved, the economy itself has recovered faster, and the current urgency of lowering LPR again seems to be less urgent.In addition, 150 trillion stock loans will be linked to LPR from March. If the interest rate of loans is continuously lowered, it will also make the banks unable to eat up.Many members of the public believe that there is a possibility of subsequent interest rate cuts, a full reduction in the standard and even the adjustment of deposit interest rates. It is expected that the release of monetary policy will be more precise and the implementation will be more moderate.  Why did LPR “walk in place” in March?  The Air Force, with a one-year term and an LPR of more than five years, had a “double drop” in February.Among them, the 1-year LPR fell by 10 basis points to 4.05%, LPR over 5 years fell by 5 basis points to 4.75%.  ”Slightly beyond expectations” is a large number of opponents’ evaluation of the March LPR market unchanged, because the 550 billion US dollar targeted downgrade has just landed this week.  Wen Bin, the chief official of China Minsheng Bank, stated that through the early-year and March 16 directional reduction and superposition, coupled with the 500 billion yuan re-loan rediscount amount, the interest rate for small re-lending to support agriculture and agriculture was reduced.The 25 digits are all effective in reducing bank costs, but they are not reflected in LPR quotes.LPR-linked MLF (medium-term lending facility) operation accounts for a relatively low proportion of the funding source of the banking system. Therefore, from the perspective of the entire debt structure of the bank, MLF and RRR cuts are relatively limited to the reduction of bank costs.  However, after the RRR cut in January this year, the LPR interest rate has not been adjusted, and since the quotation mechanism reform in August last year, LPR has not recorded a record of two consecutive months of decline.  Meng Xiangjuan, chief fixed income analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, believes that LPR has not been lowered slightly below market expectations, but considers that it has lowered 10 basis points since the beginning of the year, and at the same time has alternately lowered the target RRR, liquidity is loose, short-term monetary policy is expected to temporarily increaseEntities are mainly cohesive.Judging from the performance of the bond and equity markets yesterday, they have suffered too much.  The reduction of LPR in February was against the background of reverse repurchase and interest rates of policy instruments such as MLF, and the domestic epidemic situation was at its most severe moment.Tao Jin, a senior expert at Suning Financial Research Institute, told reporters that the incidence of disease is well under control at this stage, the situation of resuming work and resuming production has improved significantly, and the speed of economic recovery has accelerated at the same time, and the urgency of LPR reduction seems not great.However, under the long-term downward pressure of the economy, LPR will remain unchanged temporarily and will increase the probability of future interest rate cuts.  Pan Helin, Executive Dean of the Digital Economics Research Institute of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, also mentioned that the further downturn of LPR at this stage has limited impact on the market, but it will intensify the pressure on capital costs of commercial banks, because the formal conversion will begin on March 1 this year.The stock floating rate loan pricing benchmark is to convert the interest rate pricing method stipulated in the original contract to LPR as the pricing benchmark plus points. The current market stock interest rate scale is about 15 billion yuan. LPR conversion takes time, and the marginal utility of the policy will be weakened when the LPR is readjusted.The policy effect on the real economy will be more obvious when the commercial bank ‘s interest rate anchoring work has more progress and then guide the LPR downlink.  It is also possible that budget funds for lowering the deposit interest rate will be expanded until recently, a clear requirement has been put forward for a significant reduction in loan interest rates in the future, which will guide the banking system to make appropriate profits to the real economy and reduce corporate financing costs.In this context, at least the discussion on whether to lower the benchmark interest rate is also very lively.  Meng Xiangjuan said that in view of the reduction in the debt end of financial institutions, it is still possible to reduce the deposit interest rate in order to guide the financing cost of the real economy downward.Tao Jin believes that in the long run, the basis for the continued reduction in LPR is the reduction of the benchmark deposit rate that represents a larger cost reduction. At the same time, the market-oriented reform of deposits will continue to advance, and the reduction of deposit interest rates should also be market-basedIt is carried out through market means under the reform framework.  Wen Bin analyzed that corporate and residential deposits accounted for more than 60% of bank debt. If you want to reduce the cost of physical financing, then bank resistance costs should be reduced. Lowering the benchmark interest rate of deposits is the first choice. To reduce costs through banks, you can use LPRThe new mechanism continues to guide LPR down.  Pan Helin also believes that the possibility of reducing the burden on banks by lowering the deposit interest rate is very large. At present, the spreads of commercial banks have continued to shrink. The introduction of LPR quotations has not been increased and reduced, which also shows that commercial banks are under pressure to narrow the net interest margin.Reluctant to lower the quoted interest rate anymore. In the future, relevant policies will gradually be introduced to reduce the pressure on commercial banks’ capital costs.Appropriately lowering the benchmark interest rate of deposits to ease the pressure of narrowing the net interest margin of commercial banks, provide space for banks to reduce loan interest rates, and promote a marked decline in LPR quotations.  ■ The impact on the psychology of home buyers. The 150 trillion stock loans that have been anchored since 3 months also include many people ‘s “big head” monthly loans.Based on 1 million mortgages and equal principal and interest repayment for 30 years, the LPR over 5 years will fall by 5 basis points, and the monthly payment will be reduced by 31 yuan.  Pan Helin believes that the current interest rate anchoring work of commercial banks is parallel anchoring, otherwise the previous loan interest rate is 6%, and the LPR over 4 years is 4.75%, then it becomes (4.75 + 1.25%), which means that the interest rate has not changed.The conversion work began on March 1, and after more progress was made in the anchoring work, the effect of lowering LPR on the real economy was better, so the current impact of LPR reduction on the market is limited, especially for stocks.  The new loans have been linked to LPR since October 2019.Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told reporters that other interest rate cuts have an impact on the actual cost of home purchases and have a psychological impact on them.Interest rate cuts and quasi-rate cuts will be considered by home buyers as a slogan for buying a house. Without a rate cut, this effect will be eliminated.Especially in the recent rate cuts in overseas competitions, the country chose to “do nothing”. In the case of a gradual recovery in the market, the interest rate cuts will fail to affect the confidence of real estate buyers.  Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that although the LPR interest rate itself has not been adjusted, it is expected that the recent real mortgage interest rates of commercial banks across the country will be reduced.Some military commercial banks have received external attention to reduce the down payment ratio, and the adjustment of the down payment policy is facing some resistance.Therefore, as far as the current focus of commercial banks is concerned, the direction of reducing loan interest rates or recent adjustments.Such adjustments benefit both home buyers ‘mortgage loans and developers’ development loans, and generally help to reduce the corresponding costs of home buyers and housing companies.  ■ Analysis of interest rate cuts and comprehensive RRR cuts are expected to be “on the road” In the global tide of interest rate cuts, some people generally said that the internal follow-up monetary policy space ratio, interest rate cuts and comprehensive RRR cuts are expected to be “on the road”.  Tao Jin said that in recent years, China’s monetary policy has been reduced by the impact of the global interest rate cuts, and has maintained constant policy determination and timely determination for a long time.As the wave of interest rate cuts further strikes, China is likely to be the only major country in the world that insists on resisting negative interest rates. It is also more obvious that China ‘s monetary policy has been decoupled from other countries to a certain extent, but it also means whether it is from the interest rate level or the reserve rate.In terms of aspects, developing countries have a lot of room for monetary policy.  Judging from domestic factors that affect whether interest rates are cut or not, it has always been a major constraint. The CPI for 2 months is still above 5%.Wen Bin said that if the trend overcomes the tail-lifting factor and the structural factors of food price increase, the gradual level will remain relatively high.Therefore, during the transition period, the increase in food prices fell back, and the level gradually increased further. The room for monetary policy in various countries still exists. You can further reduce the standard and interest rate, which can lead to a steady decline in market interest rates, and more importantly, reduce the financing cost of the real economy.  In terms of the pace and intensity of policy implementation, Pan and Lin believe that compared with the one-time flooding of the United States, the release of multiple monetary policies is more precise and the implementation of the monetary policy is more moderate, and the subsequent monetary policy space penetrates.Initially, it will continue to further reduce the financing cost of the real economy while maintaining a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. The future monetary policies that can be adopted include targeted or comprehensive RRR cuts, OMO interest rate cuts, MLF and TMLF operations, etc.Optimizing the “three-grade, two-excellent” deposit reserve ratio framework, it is expected that there will be a targeted or comprehensive RRR cut in the second quarter to enhance the credit availability of commercial banks.In addition, after the progress of the commercial bank loan interest rate replacement anchor work progress, the extension in the second half of the year may expand and guide the downward speed of LPR and effectively reduce the financing cost of the real economy.  Sauna, night net Cheng Weimiao

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