Tongwei Shares (600438): “Tongwei” Yitian Stone Stack
Global photovoltaic demand will continue to grow, and parity on-line access is gradually approaching. At present, the 19-year domestic installation wave has gradually increased at the end of the third quarter, and it is likely to increase the demand for 20 years. At the same time, 20 years is the last domestic supplementary photovoltaicIn the year of supplementation, the domestic market may usher in “ultimate rush installation”.Germany started parity on the electricity side for 10 years, and parity on the power generation side for 12 years, with a photovoltaic penetration rate of 1.85% quickly increased to 4.19%.Analogous to the German parity process, the current inflection point of domestic premises policies and the eve of parity, by the end of 18, domestic photovoltaic penetration2.62% can still improve space.From a global perspective, 178 countries around the world have reached the upper limit of the Paris Agreement, and 146 countries have set renewable 南宁桑拿 energy targets. The Middle East, South America, and Southeast Asian countries will gradually expand demand for photovoltaic power generation due to photovoltaic economy and microgrid properties. It is expected thatGlobal photovoltaic supplementary installations will still maintain rapid growth. By 2019, domestic polysilicon manufacturers will enter a period of concentrated production of new capacity, and the new capacity will reach 17.4 Maximum limit, total production capacity will be increased to 52 by the end of the year.7 is the lowest, but considering the actual launch time of new capacity and the climbing period of 1-2 quarters, it is estimated that the effective annual capacity of domestic silicon materials in 2019 is about 42.6.In the future, the production capacity of 1-2 large factories will climb steadily, but there are few latest expansion plans. The transformation will now be in a tightly balanced state. The company’s cash and cash costs are leading the industry, with a large number of orders and continued high production and sales. Cells: The global leader in high-efficiency calibration has grown. In the long run, price cuts across the industry chain are the general trend, and short-term price cuts are more normal.The conversion of raw silicon wafers will usher in a wave of expansion in 2020, and the speed of cell wafer expansion will be significantly lower than that of silicon wafers.At the same time, the company’s non-silicon cost and capacity for sustainable production of the company’s cells, new expansion in the future will increase diluted costs. Risk reminders: First, domestic photovoltaic policies have improved less than expected; second, the company’s capacity has been released and production has fallen short of expectations. Investment suggestion: Maintain “overweight” investment rating. Tongwei is the global leader in “efficient battery + timing”.At present, the industry is driven by policies and superimposed parity. The internal installed demand is clear. The company’s reorganization and battery chips are continuously at the expected low point. The profit improvement trend in all aspects is obvious.At the same time, Tongwei is at a low point in historical estimates, and it is estimated that the space for upward revision and elastic penetration.Comprehensive relative and absolute estimates, we believe that the company’s reasonable estimation interval is 17.20-20.53 yuan / share (2019 third quarter report commentary estimates the company’s expected range is 15.78-18.75 yuan / share), and maintain the investment rating of “overweight”.